Tour Planning in the Time of COVID
So, is this going to happen…. and when will it be safe to leave?
Planning a bicycle trip in the time of COVID is like trying to change a flat while the bike is still moving. After eleven months indoors, waiting out the virus, the future remains difficult to predict. Six months ago there was still doubt that there would be a vaccine that would make it safe to tour again. However, in September 2020, when the Adventure Cycling Association opened sign-ups for their “North Star” trip, I felt confident enough that science might conquer this thing by the following June, and I put down my deposit. But, there were lots of ways that the Pandemic might go sideways between then and the following summer.
As the news was released about the efficacy of various types, the question was when these might be approved and available. Here in New York, they started vaccinating first responders and those over seventy-five, but there was a lot of doubt whether there would be sufficient doses to expand eligibility and who might be inoculated next: those with underlying conditions, teachers, essential workers, or those of us sixty-five or older. In early January, when the Federal Government approved vaccines for my group, and NY Governor Cuomo released appointments, I frantically refreshed and refreshed my screen for scheduling at the Javits Center site until slots opened and I grabbed one. With my first jap one week ago and my final shot on 3 March 2021, there was the possibility that I would be good to get outdoors again by the middle of March, making a late April departure quite reasonable.
However, there remain two huge obstacles. First is the looming “Third Wave” of virus spread if mask-wearing, social distancing, and vaccine distribution do not prevent coronavirus variants from spreading throughout the country, making it unsafe to travel. But, the second unknown is when the international border with Canada will finally reopen.
Will the Port of Roosville border crossing be open by late June? (Photo courtesy Flathead Beacon)
The border has been closed to all but a few essential workers, some truck drivers, and select individuals with qualifying reasons. However, for tourists and itinerant bicycle riders, the land border crossings are locked tight, with no change expected before 21 April 2021 when the Canadian Prime Minister’s travel restrictions expire. In November 2020, the Wilson Center announced the establishment of a Task Force on Public Health and the US-Canadian Border, which is expected to release its recommendations in March, which should inform the process and timeline for opening up the border. Until then, one can only speculate on whether the Roosville Border Station will be open for business when I’d planned to cross into Canada around 22 June 2021.
After reading the articles in newspapers published in towns along the border, there is enormous pressure by local businesses to relax restrictions. My best guess, as of 18 February, is that vaccine distribution combined with falling infection, hospitalization, and death rates in the next six weeks will result in a phased opening, based on good science and the availability of better rapid molecular and antigen tests. Perhaps, with proof of vaccination and a negative spot test, possibly combined with a short three-day quarantine, individuals may be able to cross the border in May, with a further relaxation of restrictions coming by mid-June. But, this all depends on whether vaccinations and masking, combined with a restrained re-opening of indoor venues, happens quickly enough to dampen the variant virus spread.
Back in June 2020, when some tour companies were considering touring again and a few friends were speculating on whether it might be safe to do solo touring, I wrote up a set of guidelines. Here is what I wrote nine months ago:
When Will It Be Safe to Tour Again? (published June 2020)
What are the conditions that would have to be in place before we could consider resuming multi-day personal bicycle touring between now and the availability of a vaccine? How can we separate magical or aspirational thinking from reality and real risks?
This is the time to look at the situation from a real risk analysis perspective and develop some criteria that will help guide us over the next months.
What needs to be in place before we can begin traveling away from home by bicycle?
1) Is there certainty regarding the nature of the virus and how to prevent your infection? Things are changing so fast. What was tolerable and accepted (masks v. no masks, treatment options, local regulations) just five weeks ago may become different or unthinkable. Planning to tour in this environment is like fixing a flat while your bike is still moving. There needs to be confidence that the situation has normalized enough to begin your tour. What do the scientific models tell you about the region where you will be riding?
2) Are there scientific assurances that your touring would be safe:
a. There would need to be the availability of testing to ensure that you are not infected or that you have antibodies. You don’t want to be a vector if you are cycling but asymptomatically infected. Would you need to quarantine yourself before the start of a ride and get a test before your touring begins? This would extend to the availability of at-home (on the road) tests for infection so that you can make sure that your sore throat on tour isn’t just a sore throat.
b. There would need to be medical proof that the tests are reliable and that if you do have antibodies, they convey immunity.
c. There would need to be no threat of a resurgence of virus (first of second waves) where you plan to ride. You do not want to be out there and need to cancel your touring due to an outbreak of COVID-19 and have to evacuate yourself suddenly or find yourself stuck by a quarantine order.
d. You would need to know the prevalence, incidence, and isolation mandates for the areas where you would ride, and are these rules safe or just tolerable? What has determined that the areas are open? Are the decisions to open an area based on politics and economics or solid science? Again, we need to make sure that magical thinking and economic necessity have not factored into determining these risks.
3) Travel availability: Can you get to the start point. There need to be no restrictions on leisure travel by airlines and that when you get to the start point, you should have high confidence that you were not infected while traveling to your start point.
4) Open communities: Are the local communities ready, including hotels, stores, restaurants, and healthcare facilities, and are there assurances that they are not overloaded. Are there communities along the route that have not closed themselves off? Would some places where cyclists go be hostile to outsiders?
5) Insurance/Medical Emergency: Are you covered in the case of illness or injury? Do you have Insurance coverage and legal indemnity in case of illness? Could you be evacuated if necessary?
Well, these were my guidelines back in June 2020. They have weathered well. Let’s see how things stack up for a Spring 2021 departure.
Certainty and Scientific Assurances: Is there confidence that the virus will not surge again while I’m out traveling: No, not yet. And there is no clear scientific evidence that someone vaccinated cannot spread the virus or that the variants do not have a high level of transmissibility. So, no certainty yet, but the next month should reveal more as vaccination rates increase and we see spread rates continue to drop. There is still medium risk and not enough certainty or scientific assurances that I won’t get sick myself and, more importantly, would not possibly be a virus vector pedaling across the country.
Travel Availability: Not a problem, since my concern last June was that there might be travel restrictions in the US to halt the spread. It might have been a good idea earlier in the spread of the virus across the US, but with dispersal complete… that ship has sailed. No risk.
Open Communities: Again, aside from very isolated communities, the virus is already out there. Plus, my route is through well-traveled parts of the world along highways. No risk.
Insurance and Evacuation: Not an issue, since I’ll be riding between towns and along major highways.
I’ll continue to train, plan, and wait…. And hope!
